Reirden, Kapanen, and....Stale Bread?

Good afternoon and happy pre-Labor Day. I trust everyone has had fun watching some rooting-interest-free hockey these last few weeks. Unless you're a fan of Bane. He hasn't showed up yet for the PHI / NYI series yet, but that doesn't mean he won't blow up both teams tonight before Philly can make a series out of it. Hopefully he at least spares Barzal.

Since last blog, the Penguins have made a pair of notable moves - one off the ice and one on the ice. Neither is quite as interesting as Twitter would have you believe, but we'll touch on each of them briefly and then expound on my cooler-heads thoughts of the month (the topic is Staleness in the NHL). Limited analytics - I promise.

COACHING CHANGES: The Penguins fired the meat of their assistant coaching core in Mark Recchi, Jacques Martin, and Sergei Gonchar, and have since replaced them with former squeeze Todd Reirden.

I'm not going to spend much time on this because my reaction was pretty much the same as everyone else's. I don't believe assistant coaches are huge difference makers in hockey, especially on mostly successful top-heavy teams like the Penguins who's identity is largely player-driven. Most of the "system" stuff comes from the Head Coach, as does player usage. These are what cause teams to sink or swim. The Justin Schultz 2016 rehabilitation was perhaps a curse in disguise for Gonchar, as he was then expected to elevate every shitbag D-Man GMJR brought in. He and Ray Searage probably have plenty to talk about over beers.

Obviously, Reirden had pre-Kessell success with the Pens PP. That unit was a turd sandwich at year's end, so any change is welcome on that front. Hey Todd - tell Sid he's playing down low or he sits (good luck). Maybe GMJR can find a reliable RH shot for the PP and make his buddy Todd look like a genius. Hey wait a minute....

KASPERI KAPANEN: ....well lookie here!

Boy did this one bring out the sharks. If you haven't had internet access in quarantine, I hope you're enjoying the mental institution. The rest of us enjoyed the circus #online in late August as GMJR sent a 1st, Evan Rodrigues, Filip Hallander, and David Warsofsky's corpse to the Leafs for Kasperi Kapanen Part Duex and a couple sandbaggers.

Look, I get it. On it's face, the trade was incredibly unbalanced. Hallander was a top 3 prospect, E-Rod is a serviceable NHL-er, and a 1st rounder is just that. That's the type of haul you pay for deadline difference maker like Jason Zucker, which Kapanen is not. The Kahun comparisons were somewhat fair - Kahun isn't far off on career PPG ( DK 0.49 / KK 0.52). They both had similar possession numbers (DK 49.74 CF% / KK 51.63 CF%). Kahun was actually little bit better defensively.

As for his Kap hit (groan), it's fine. Right in line with guys of similar offensive output and money.

HOWEVA, here's the way I look at it.

You hear everyone bitch about "market value." I think it's important to remember the NHL is not a car dealership. There are not thousands of buyers with identical budgets looking for the same Nissan Exterra. There are only 31 teams and everyone is generally aware of each team's very unique needs, problem areas, and strengths. Think about being an NHL GM - your job description is literally to evaluate contracts and players all day. It doesn't take that long to figure out. So, of course a team like the Red Wings wouldn't even take a phone call on Kapanen if it meant giving up a 1st rounder.

Conversely, the Penguins #15 pick provides almost no value to them at this stage, and sorry, but neither does Filip Hallander. Neither will help 87 or 71 win another Cup. Each has maximum value for the PENGUINS SPECIFICALLY in the trade market. If your requirements are a 1) scoring-upside 2) RH shot 3) with speed 4) at manageable cap hit 5) on a team looking to move him...you've got maybe 3 - 4 options league-wide. If you find the deal, bird in hand, man. Such is the nature of a salary cap league. Imagine the Pens going into next season having not addressed this?

As for Kapanen the player, we'll see. The stats are what they are, but it's fair to point out he was "buried" in a third line role with Alexander Kerfoot because their other two RWs were named Marner and Nylander, each centered by Tavares and Matthews. Ever heard of 'em? You never know when you're gonna find the next Kunitz / Dupuis, but we know for sure he wasn't on the current roster. KK will get looks with 87 / 71. Pray for rain, baby.

Bottom line - they probably could have waited a little longer and got better value. It is not an equal 1-1 trade. But I'm not going to lose too much sleep on a deal that yielded the Penguins the best player and also addresses a need. GMJR has made WAY worse, and expecting tangible offensive upside is not unreasonable.

I also prefer to look at each off-season as a whole, and you bet your bitch tits more moves are coming.

STALENESS: This topic deserves it's own blog written by someone with much better stats-research skill than me, but I'll mention it quickly. After the dust settled from the MTL series and especially after the Blues, Capitals, and Bruins were eliminated, I started thinking about the concept of "Stale" in the NHL. More specifically, in a salary cap league where change is inevitable, can intangibles like motivation and momentum yield tangible results?

The Penguins have Cup'd three times now. They understand what it takes and how brutal the march is. The Blues and Capitals spent the better part of a decade chasing it and finally got one each. The Blackhawks smoked everyone and bottomed out for a couple years. The Kings are still in the basement. The Sharks have been chasing a Cup since Nixon was president and are finally out of gas. Hell, even the big bad Bruins can't get back there after 2011's Cup run.

I think once you get to a certain level, and especially as AGE sets in, the task becomes excruciatingly daunting. That's not to say teams don't want to win. But it's human nature. When the same core has been in place for so long, at what point does the process become a bigger hurdle than the opponent?

This is NOT my way of saying the Penguins should trade 87 / 71 / 58, so save that shit. I'm just saying maybe we should cut them some slack. The sport is difficult (and random) enough as-is. I don't think it's any secret that many teams who experience sudden coaching changes often play much better. Recent names like Bylsma, Berube, Sullivan, Sutter, and Trotz might ring a bell. Sometimes a change of scenery is what's needed, and it's nobody's fault.

For the opposite reason, it's why teams like Montreal, NY Islanders, Vancouver, Colorado, Dallas, and even CBJ can cause people fits. Those guys haven't really tasted it yet. I think when we look back on the COVID Cup, the story will be youth and motivation in the face of shitty circumstances.

Unless of course Tampa goes on to win. They've been doing this forever and I don't know what to think about them. I'll just go fuck myself.

Go Pens.