Steelers First Half + Prediction Accountability feat. Fredo Corleone

We're back! My apologies for keeping my dozen(s) of readers anxiously waiting while I took a two week hiatus. When it's 70 degrees in November and the internet is a dumpster fire, well, it's like that brutal Foo Fighters song: It's times like these, you learn, to live again.

Good luck having that shit stuck in your head for the rest of the day.

The Steelers - what have we here!!!??? You may have heard the boys in Black & Yellow are the NFL's lone remaining unbeaten team, and yet some feel they still can't get no respect. That is a Hines Ward-esque imaginary slight, considering everybody with a podcast or blog has them sitting firmly in the Top 2-3 teams in the league. You have to fill up the airwaves somehow, and the Steelers "bulletin board material" will almost certainly be coming from the Pittsburgh media for the balance of the season. Don't let a meaningless Bengals tweet written by some intern fool you - the Steelers are for real, and the world knows.

The last time we talked about the Steelers on this blog, the temperature was cautiously optimistic. The team was sitting at 4-0 after defeating three cocker spaniels and the Saint Bonaventure shuffleboard team. Since then, they have proven it was no fluke.

First, they absolutely pistol-whipped the Browns, who at the time adorably believed they belonged in the NFL.

Following that massacre were two incredibly entertaining nail-biters versus the cream of AFC Teams Not Led By Patrick Mahomes. The Steelers needed a couple breaks to win both games, but they played good enough to earn the victory and made plays when it counted (more on that later).

Finally, they closed out the first half with a highly predictable stinker in Dallas and managed to win anyway. Seriously, if you've been watching this team (or the NFL) for any reasonable amount of time and didn't take Dallas +14.5 at home, you're just bad with money. Maybe take one of those Gary Vanderchuck seminars and learn how to make good financial decisions.

And that's that. With the NFL season being as short as it is, and the Steelers manageable remaining schedule, an 8-0 start all but guarantees a playoff berth barring a massive collapse or BB7 injury. They are now playing for the division and homefield advantage in a pretty loaded AFC. It will not be easy - or will it? Let’s see.

The Chiefs have a handful of remaining difficult road games (@TB, @NO, @MIA, @LV) but it's hard to imagine them finishing worse than 13-3.

The Ravens, meanwhile, look "getable". They have squeaked out "meh" wins in their last two non-Steeler games vs underwhelming opponents (Philly and Indy). Their offense ranks a paltry 23rd in DVOA, mainly because Lamar looks shaky. He has not thrown for over 210 yards in any game since Week 1. If teams figure out how to contain the Baltimore rushing attack, they quickly become uncomfortably reliant on their defense (which is still very good).

I have no fucking clue what to think about the Bills. Maybe that's just perception of a historical doormat. I won't bore you with their fancy stats, but suffice to say they’re slightly above average in most meaningful categories. Josh Allen says shove them - the guy wins games, most recently a throttling of the Seahawks admittedly embarassing defense. We'll see, but I wouldn't want to go into Bills Mafia tettitory this winter.

What's that you say? The Steelers have to do just that on December 13th? What a showdown that will be.

Lastly - the Titans are #good. Beating them twice in a season will be difficult, but not impossible. Not much else to say there. Vegas, Miami, and Indy can fight for the last wild card while everyone else moves on with their life. The Browns will be out of it by the time you hear holiday Mariah Carey for the fist time at Target.

All of this is to say - the Steelers path to at least a #2 Seed is theirs to lose. Keeping up with the Mahomes-es will be a tall task, but a 2 game lead on a divisional opponent has them in good shape. A 5-3 finish (or maybe even 4-4) could reasonably get it done. Anything better is cash money. Go to work.

Before we get to Prediction Accountability, I quickly want to discuss what has been different in the Steelers franchise-best start. Again - we know the defense is good, it usually is when the Steelers are kicking ass. The following are what have been unique to this season.

1. Finishing Ability: The Cowboys and Ravens games in years past were no-doubt losses. Whether it be a big JuJu fumble or a Mike Tomlin mishandling of the clock, they almost always found ways to vomit a couple games which should have been in total control. This is the NFL, where double-digit spreads are almost unheard of. Every game is likely to be close. Tomlin has mostly managed the end-of game situations well (outside of the asinine decision to forego the FG in the Cowboys game). The offense has scored when it needed to (double-digit 1st half deficits to Texans, Cowboys, and a late insurance TD vs. Philly). The defense has bent-not-broken (Ravens and Titans). Finishing the game when you don't have your best day is what separates playoff teams from the Browns and Jets. Just kidding - they always suck, but you get my point.

2. Accountability: I've mentioned in a couple previous blogs how the Steelers don't quite tickle my emotional titty the way the Penguins do. That may be a #cold take, because I’m getting horny. The Steelers likability is tied first to their success, second to their businesslike approach. Gone are the idiots like AB, Lev, and bathroom stall BB7. Leaders like Cam Heyward, Minkah, TJ Watt, Pouncey, and born-again BB7 have the Steelers playing accountable football. I'm still mortified by JuJu's Tik Tok nonsense, but that's because I'm a crusty old bitch. Give him credit - he hasn't complained despite a reduced role and has produced in huge spots when called upon.

3. Balance: Pretty simple. The Steelers win all kinds of ways. They don't rely on the offense to score a million points every week and don't require shutouts from the defense (even if both units are capable). Special teams / Boswell had been sharp up until the Dallas debacle, but here's a dollar to your dime it’s corrected by next week. And if it doesn't, Danny Smith's buyout clause is only 972 packs of Big League Chew.

PREDICTION ACCOUNTABILITY

Feel free to stop reading here if you don't care about my self-serving agenda. This is purely for record keeping so my asshole friends stop chirping me about sandbagging my picks.

This week's prediction rating system will be tiered by Corleone brothers, for no particular reason. Michael (Smart) Sonny (Questionable) and Fredo (Shoot my Dumb Ass in the Head)

1. Big Ben: Will look awkward with his massive head and newly-petite figure. He will light up the Giants in Week 1 like a Christmas tree, then fall back down to earth a bit in Week 2-3. He will throw three interceptions in a game at least twice. He will also miss at least two games, because he's Big Ben. Despite all of that, he will finish the year a Top-7 QB in attempts, yards, completions, and TDs. Sonny. Ben is statistically in the middle of the pack, though he is 7th in TDs and 10th in Passer Rating. He's been great and hasn't had to do it all. See above - balance.

2. Defense: Timely turnovers and defensive scores inflated the Steelers defensive rankings last year. They will regress, and not finish in the Top-10 in either category. Fredo. They started slow-ish but a couple of pick sixes and huge splash plays have them rolling.

3. Bud Dupree: Will call Shaq about getting an endorsement from Icy Hot, since he’ll be super hot and cold (and not good for a sack). He will have a couple huge games with two sacks and a forced fumble, and the other 13 weeks you'll have to check the box score to make sure he played. Michael. Nailed it. Lit up Cleveland and has been very quiet in the 3 games since (1 sack and 0 TFL).

4. T.J. Watt: Will continue to be sexier than J.J and Derek. Unlike the NHL, NFL teams typically pay their star players throughout the majority of their careers. T.J. Watt won't make it easy on them. He will have yet another Pro-Bowl season with two interceptions, twelve sacks, and plenty of bicep veins. He will command Top-3 money at his position by next year. Michael. He's everywhere. He somehow only has 7 sacks but seems to be in the backfield every play. When he doesn't get to the QB, his hands are up and he's batting balls down. Pay the man.

5. James Conner: Will have seven different haircuts. This will also be the year Yinzers lose patience with him once he goes down with a non-contact injury in Week 6. Fredo. So far so good!

6. Mortal Lock of the Year: After narrowly escaping the Bengals in Week 10, the Steelers will lose to Jacksonville in Week 11 ahead of a divisional showdown with the Ravens. Rub it down, lock it up, and take it straight to the bank. Tell your bookie I said sorry. Sonny. Almost arrived 2 weeks early in Dallas, but trending well!

7. Cam Heyward: Will be balder than you remember, but that won't stop him from terrorizing opposing QBs. If there is one guy who will live up to a nice fat contract, it's him. Michael. Too easy. Heart and soul.

8. The Offense: Will be Jekyll and Hyde. Ben will throw too much (around 65% of downs), which will lead to consecutive games where they score 3 points then 40 points. Dionte Johnson will officially pass up Tik Tok Schuster as the clear-cut #1, which isn't really great news for anybody other than Johnson. Speaking of JuJu...Michael. The good news for Steeler fans is the offense may just take an entire half off, rather than a full game.

9. JuJu Smith-Schuster: Will be #trending on Twitter at least 37 times this year, with Mark Madden and 93.7 the Fan squeezing every bit of content they can out of him before he leaves next year. Honestly, I don't really have a strong opinion on the guy. I think some of his social media shenanigans are incredibly embarrassing and juvenile, but I'm also an old out-of-touch bitch who doesn't know shit about building a brand. JuJu getting single-coverage during the AB years probably inflated expectations for him beyond what was reasonable, and now he's paying for it. That's probably a little unfair, but it ain't like he does himself any favors. Silly games = silly prizes. Michael. He's averaging 55 yds/game and has 4 TDs. His 'moments' aren't plentiful but they are impactful. He'll still be gone next year, but full credit for accepting a "help the team win" role in stride.

10. Minkah Fitzpatrick: What's the saying for client-relations in business? Under-promise, over-deliver? Minkah will wish he lived by that credo. Like JuJu, he will earn the ire of the mongoloid Yinzer media because of unrealistic expectations set via alien-level production last year. Nonetheless, he'll be rock-solid with at least five picks and two scores. Michael. Two picks, a fumble recovery, and a score. Yinzer Media just now backing off. On schedule.

11. David Decastro: Will give lots of good, sincere, angry quotes after losses. Sonny. I feel this will be a "Michael" by next blog following the Jacksonville game.

12. Devin Bush: Will have the flyest rat-tail in the league. He'll also have a Pro-Bowl year. Fredo. Unfortunate turn of events for the sophomore. Credit to Spillane for not sucking in his stead. Come back strong next year DB!

13. Terrell Edmunds: Will continue to search for a fourth brother so they can finally transform into the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles before the Watts get to it first. He will also be visibly three steps late on at least five deep touchdowns. I hate saying this - I'm sure Edmunds is a nice guy and I always like to root for guys from my alma-mater (Go Hokies). But he kinda stinks, right? Sonny: This really should be a Michael but I don't want to get greedy. He is as vanilla as they come on an otherwise Rocky Road with chocolate sprinkles, caramel, and whipped cream defense.

14. The Ravens: Will win the division easily, despite slightly regressing. Record will be 12-4, and Robert Griffin III will play in at least two games. I also hate saying this because Lamar Jackson is firmly my favorite non-Steeler (see, I told you I wasn't emotional). I just simply refuse to believe a guy who plays that way can get through a season fully healthy once teams have a full off-season to prepare for the MVP. Now, I also think he throws a much better ball than he's given credit for. Should he become more of a Mahomes / Wilson / Watson type where he passes first and runs only when called upon, then look the fuck out. Sonny: RGIII has technically played in a game. The division ain't over yet, but it's trending to Fredo territory.

15. Chris Boswell: Will be working at Enterprise Rent-a-Car by Week 10. They really give you the tools to be your own boss. Fredo: Unless Dallas happens again

16. Chase Claypool: I'm a closet Notre Dame fan (boooo!), so I want Chase to do well. No time for emotional takes though - my gut tells me he will be the least impactful Steelers top pick in years. Not necessarily his fault - they got him in Round 2. He will struggle to earn targets. Good chance he shoves this up my hoop considering the Steelers' history of drafting WRs. Fredo: Let's move on.

17. Jordan Dangerfield: Will be called exclusively "Rodney" by me for the entire year. Michael.

18. Joshua Dobbs / Mason Rudolph: Will both stink in relief, mainly due to being involved in a love triangle with Hannah-Ann from the Bachelor. Mercy. Michael.

19. Eric Ebron: Nothing to say but solid fit. Eight TDs, will finish a Top-10 Fantasy TE. Michael: Slow start but trending in the right direction. 3 TDs, currently the #9 Fantasy TE.

20. The Secondary: Joe Haden and Steven Nelson will take turns each week on who's turn it is to suck while the other plays great. Mike Hilton will have two interceptions in incredibly huge moments and not be heard from again the balance of the year. Sonny: Mike Hilton has been great and looks close to returning from injury. Joe Haden loves pass interference and/or incredible pass breakups.

21. Mike Tomlin: Will allow Mike Epps to coach one game just to see if anyone notices. Just kidding. Tomlin is perhaps the best leader in the NFL, and the worst clock--and-challenge-manager. Seriously, I think he's like 5-for-23 on challenges the last four years. He'll cost them at least one game with an inexplicable gaffe. That said, you can count on one hand the number of coaches I'd rather have. It's been said before but bears repeating: He deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for managing the AB/Lev Bell/Early Ben teams for as long as he did. He missed the playoffs in 2018 for the first time in 6 years, and 2019 doesn't count with Duck Hodges' corpse playing QB. Bounce-back year for Mike T. Michael: Bouncing back is an understatement. Tomlin is dialed in. He did almost try to cost them the Dallas game with the FG decision, but he came away unscathed. Let's hope it stays that way for the 2nd half.

22. Final Record: 9-7....but they'll make the playoffs! The Texans, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills are going to run away with their divisions. Pencil in the Steelers and Pats as the wild-card teams. Fredo: I broke my own heart on this one. Good to be wrong.